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April 18, 2007


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Jonathan Knowles

Wow! Thank you, Vic, for such a quick response to my comment.
IBM's situation in 1991 seems an amazingly close parallel to Microsoft's current predicament, right down to their respective EME ratios (around 45%) and share of sales (over 70%).
Your analysis shows that IBM went from an apparently unassailable market position in 1991 of sales 3.5x the combined total of its three rivals to a position 7 years later where its rivals' combined sales surpassed IBM's.
It is a neat coincidence that Microsoft's 2005 revenues were $41 bn - 3.4x Google and Yahoo's combined revenues of $12 bn.
As you note, whether Microsoft mirrors IBM's subsequent fate depends largely on fixing its $8 bn problem.

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